Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -10000 SOU +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +20 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -17.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (-20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -16.4 (+3.6) | 153.1 (-15.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -17.6 (+2.4) | 152.4 (-14.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -15.8 (+4.2) | 153.4 (-15.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -16.7 (+3.3) | 154.3 (-16.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#32) | -0.4 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#70) | -0.95 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#52) | -1.44 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#64) | 0.492 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 42.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 25.3% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 42.9% |
Game Analysis
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