Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | HART +333 SPU -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HART win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +1 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -7.8 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -5.3 (+4.3) | 124.6 (-9.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -8.6 (+7.6) | 123.1 (-8.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -4.6 (+3.6) | 129.6 (-14.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -4.2 (+3.2) | 124.3 (-9.3) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HART | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-23 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 0-0 | 7-13 |
| Home | 5-10 | 8-6 |
| Away | 0-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.7 | 60.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -21.0 (#363) | -8.0 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.01 (#349) | -1.62 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.90 (#343) | -2.02 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.313 (#362) | 0.378 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HART | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 41.8% |
Game Analysis
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