Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -32.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -8000 NCAT +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +28 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -36.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -33.3 (-5.3) | 129.7 (-9.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -27.8 (+0.2) | 128.8 (-8.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -25.7 (+2.3) | 129.9 (-9.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -32.9 (-4.9) | 129.6 (-9.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 11-0 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 23.1 (#2) | -8.1 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.03 (#11) | -1.32 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.31 (#10) | -1.10 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#14) | 0.403 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.3% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.5% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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