Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | LSU -1200 NCCU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +10 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -7.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -7.9 (+2.1) | 138.8 (-14.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -11.2 (-1.2) | 136.0 (-12.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -7.6 (+2.4) | 141.7 (-17.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -8.0 (+2.0) | 141.3 (-17.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 10-4 |
| Home | 10-8 | 13-1 |
| Away | 0-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#107) | 1.5 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#31) | -0.80 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#31) | -0.96 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#63) | 0.457 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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