Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -1400 UPST +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +17 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -11.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -6.7 (+10.3) | 142.1 (+0.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -8.8 (+8.2) | 141.0 (+2.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -6.7 (+10.3) | 143.4 (-0.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -7.0 (+10.0) | 143.0 (-0.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-11 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#240) | -10.0 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#331) | -0.08 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#312) | -0.74 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#302) | 0.500 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 27.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 58.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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