Betting Lines
| Spread | UTAH -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UTAH -3300 UTSA +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTAH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTAH +21 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | UTAH -27.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTAH -27.2 (-6.2) | 143.3 (+17.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTAH -23.1 (-2.1) | 146.4 (+14.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTAH -22.3 (-1.3) | 143.8 (+17.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTAH -26.3 (-5.3) | 144.4 (+16.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTAH | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 4-16 |
| Home | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#16) | -8.2 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#39) | -1.12 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#48) | -0.89 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#73) | 0.429 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTAH | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.7% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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