Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UIC -138 PV +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +9 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UIC -2.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -2.8 (+6.2) | 138.4 (-7.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -1.5 (+7.5) | 136.1 (-5.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -3.3 (+5.7) | 136.3 (-5.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -2.9 (+6.1) | 136.7 (-5.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 9-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#235) | -0.7 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#243) | -0.57 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#261) | -0.19 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#232) | 0.460 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 38.6% |
Game Analysis
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