Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG +115 MRSH -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +8 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -7.9 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -5.4 (+13.4) | 139.3 (+2.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -5.5 (+13.5) | 133.9 (+8.1) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -5.9 (+13.9) | 135.0 (+7.0) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -5.6 (+13.6) | 138.0 (+4.0) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2023 | MRSH 72 – 65 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 24-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#236) | 9.6 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#245) | 2.25 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#222) | 3.31 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#238) | 0.577 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 42.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 10.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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