Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH +110 UNCG -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -0.9 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (-19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -1.4 (+5.6) | 150.8 (-13.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -0.6 (+7.6) | 150.7 (-13.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -0.0 (+7.0) | 152.3 (-15.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -0.2 (+7.2) | 151.9 (-14.9) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2022 | UNCG 75 – 67 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#227) | 2.7 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#246) | 1.91 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#219) | 2.69 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#190) | 0.576 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.