Betting Lines
| Spread | URI -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | URI +100 UML +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UML -7.1 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -5.0 (+7.0) | 138.1 (+13.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -4.6 (+6.6) | 135.9 (+16.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -5.8 (+7.8) | 135.9 (+16.1) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UML -5.7 (+7.7) | 137.2 (+14.8) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-5 |
| Home | 7-9 | 17-0 |
| Away | 1-10 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#265) | 7.2 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#310) | 2.40 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#284) | 2.93 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#284) | 0.554 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.1% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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