Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -4000 AMCC +1900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +38 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -17.5 (+20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -15.5 (+22.5) | 160.7 (-0.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -18.6 (+19.4) | 158.1 (+1.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -15.9 (+22.1) | 160.2 (-0.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -16.9 (+21.1) | 163.3 (-3.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#11) | 2.5 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#13) | 0.08 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.60 (#20) | 0.27 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#22) | 0.483 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 25.4% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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