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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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24–9 on winners spread MAE 6.9 33 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
American University @ Holy Cross	+2.1	137.4	60%	60–54	✗
Vermont @ Hartford	-11.5	143.1	15%	74–75	✗
Duquesne @ Davidson	+13.2	141.5	88%	61–72	✓
Tulsa @ UCF	+7.9	140.6	79%	67–76	✓
James Madison @ Delaware	+5.3	144.5	71%	60–81	✓
Drexel @ Charleston	+2.6	151.4	66%	75–79	✓
Bucknell @ Lehigh	+4.4	148.3	66%	77–86	✓
North Carolina Central @ Coppin State	+0.1	139.0	48%	77–74	✗
Howard @ Maryland Eastern Shore	-2.3	139.7	41%	77–71	✓
Virginia @ Virginia Tech	+6.9	126.6	73%	53–62	✓
West Virginia @ Kansas State	+3.3	134.4	66%	73–78	✓
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+0.1	143.2	50%	98–102	✓
Niagara @ Marist	+4.0	137.7	66%	70–77	✓
Canisius @ Fairfield	+6.0	135.3	75%	76–80	✓
South Carolina State @ Morgan State	-0.7	147.6	45%	66–76	✗
Norfolk State @ Delaware State	-13.8	135.8	13%	69–66	✓
Western Kentucky @ Southern Miss	-9.7	143.0	15%	87–77	✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama A&M	+4.1	132.2	66%	69–74	✓
Southern Utah @ Northern Colorado	+0.9	157.0	56%	95–100	✓
IU Indianapolis @ UIC	+14.8	131.3	89%	54–57	✓
Southern @ Texas Southern	+2.9	137.0	66%	70–58	✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Jackson State	+3.1	124.4	62%	51–71	✓
Grambling @ Prairie View A&M	+2.6	145.4	62%	70–71	✓
Florida A&M @ Alcorn State	+3.6	135.0	66%	56–68	✓
Oklahoma State @ Kansas	+10.4	150.4	85%	62–76	✓
Washington State @ Oregon	+2.8	136.1	66%	59–62	✓
Dayton @ Rhode Island	-2.4	128.1	38%	63–57	✓
Georgetown @ Creighton	+11.1	143.5	86%	77–88	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama State	+11.8	152.4	87%	85–71	✗
High Point @ Longwood	+8.4	141.6	79%	66–70	✓
Akron @ Western Michigan	-9.2	134.4	17%	57–61	✗
Kent State @ Toledo	+11.9	147.2	85%	72–59	✗
Michigan State @ Penn State	-2.8	131.6	38%	58–62	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.