Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -8.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -4.4 (-0.4) | 134.6 (+21.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -6.0 (-2.0) | 135.3 (+20.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -5.9 (-1.9) | 135.3 (+20.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -6.3 (-2.3) | 136.3 (+19.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | FAIR 61 – 55 CAN |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CAN 85 – 81 FAIR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CAN 78 – 67 FAIR |
| Mar 8, 2024 | FAIR 74 – 62 CAN |
| Jan 15, 2024 | FAIR 88 – 63 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-13 |
| Home | 6-9 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#186) | -6.2 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#239) | -1.05 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#238) | -1.57 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#222) | 0.454 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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