Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -4.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -3.2 (+3.8) | 136.2 (+10.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -4.0 (+3.0) | 137.7 (+9.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -3.6 (+3.4) | 138.9 (+8.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -3.8 (+3.2) | 138.5 (+8.5) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MRST 58 – 46 NIA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MRST 64 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MRST 67 – 65 NIA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MRST 65 – 59 NIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | MRST 63 – 62 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-4 |
| Away | 7-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#170) | -2.0 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#236) | -0.41 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#213) | -0.65 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#225) | 0.489 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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