Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | HART +450 UVM -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HART win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HART +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -12.2 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -11.1 (+12.1) | 139.4 (+9.6) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -11.5 (+12.5) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -10.9 (+11.9) | 144.2 (+4.8) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -11.6 (+12.6) | 142.2 (+6.8) | 16% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2022 | UVM 82 – 72 HART |
| Mar 6, 2021 | HART 71 – 65 UVM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HART | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 17-1 |
| Home | 7-5 | 16-0 |
| Away | 5-13 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 61.1 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#295) | 7.6 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#322) | 1.51 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#321) | 1.79 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#308) | 0.580 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HART | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 80.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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