Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 118.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +9 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | VT -7.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -6.8 (+2.2) | 125.6 (-10.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -6.9 (+2.1) | 126.6 (-11.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -6.5 (+2.5) | 126.5 (-11.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -6.1 (+2.9) | 128.2 (-13.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UVA 76 – 72 VT |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VT 95 – 85 UVA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UVA 73 – 70 VT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | VT 75 – 74 UVA |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VT 75 – 41 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 60.1 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#29) | 6.9 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#87) | 1.35 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#74) | 1.56 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#79) | 0.555 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 41.5% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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