Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +12 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | TXSO -3.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -4.7 (-16.7) | 137.8 (-9.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -2.9 (-14.9) | 137.0 (-9.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -2.4 (-14.4) | 137.7 (-9.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -3.0 (-15.0) | 138.1 (-10.1) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | TXSO 74 – 73 SOU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SOU 84 – 73 TXSO |
| Feb 18, 2025 | SOU 66 – 57 TXSO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SOU 67 – 58 TXSO |
| Feb 20, 2024 | TXSO 68 – 56 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 8-10 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#167) | -0.6 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#201) | -0.34 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#199) | -0.62 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#192) | 0.490 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 25.9% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 34.2% |
Game Analysis
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