Betting Lines
| Spread | CLE -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +4 | 200 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -1.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+56.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -0.6 (+4.6) | 141.7 (+58.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -0.1 (+3.9) | 143.2 (+56.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -0.2 (+3.8) | 145.0 (+55.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLE -0.2 (+4.2) | 144.5 (+55.5) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PFW 92 – 86 CLE |
| Jan 4, 2026 | PFW 74 – 71 CLE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CLE 68 – 57 PFW |
| Jan 31, 2025 | CLE 68 – 58 PFW |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CLE 75 – 72 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 15-6 | 15-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#254) | -0.4 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#247) | 0.13 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#259) | 0.14 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#249) | 0.502 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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