Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +5 | 195 | Won |
| Massey | UNCO -1.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (+34.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -0.9 (+4.1) | 157.0 (+38.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -0.0 (+5.0) | 158.6 (+36.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -0.5 (+4.5) | 159.7 (+35.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -0.8 (+4.2) | 159.3 (+35.7) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 2, 2022 | UNCO 91 – 81 SUU |
| Mar 11, 2021 | SUU 91 – 83 UNCO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-9 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#206) | -0.6 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#193) | 0.27 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#201) | 0.15 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#122) | 0.522 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 20.8% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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