Betting Lines
| Spread | COPP -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +3 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | COPP -0.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COPP -0.6 (-3.6) | 141.4 (+9.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COPP -0.1 (-3.1) | 139.0 (+12.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -0.1 (-2.9) | 140.3 (+10.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COPP -0.3 (-3.3) | 141.2 (+9.8) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | COPP 58 – 56 NCCU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | NCCU 88 – 77 COPP |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NCCU 71 – 59 COPP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | COPP 63 – 61 NCCU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NCCU 83 – 58 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 8-5 |
| Home | 3-6 | 9-2 |
| Away | 4-16 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#306) | -6.0 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#307) | -1.00 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#300) | -1.56 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#296) | 0.464 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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