Betting Lines
| Spread | HC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +6 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | HC -3.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -1.8 (-7.8) | 132.3 (-18.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -2.1 (-8.1) | 137.4 (-23.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HC -2.2 (-8.2) | 138.8 (-24.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -1.6 (-7.6) | 135.8 (-21.8) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AMER 76 – 67 HC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | HC 84 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 18, 2025 | AMER 74 – 65 HC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | AMER 75 – 64 HC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HC 58 – 56 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-9 | 6-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#345) | -13.4 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#320) | -2.19 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.66 (#332) | -2.53 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#330) | 0.384 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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