Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SCST -0.4 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -1.1 (+8.9) | 147.7 (-5.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SCST -0.7 (+10.7) | 147.6 (-5.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SCST -0.3 (+10.3) | 148.8 (-6.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SCST -0.5 (+10.5) | 150.2 (-8.2) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MORG 90 – 83 SCST |
| Jan 10, 2026 | MORG 72 – 67 SCST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SCST 90 – 62 MORG |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SCST 86 – 72 MORG |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SCST 72 – 61 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-15 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 7-7 |
| Home | 8-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -13.3 (#344) | -10.0 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#342) | -1.17 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.01 (#345) | -1.82 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#341) | 0.424 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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