Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KENT +13 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -11.3 (-24.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -9.7 (-22.7) | 146.0 (-15.0) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -11.9 (-24.9) | 147.2 (-16.2) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -11.0 (-24.0) | 148.2 (-17.2) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -10.3 (-23.3) | 146.2 (-15.2) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | KENT 75 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 16, 2026 | KENT 87 – 84 TOL |
| Feb 26, 2025 | KENT 105 – 65 TOL |
| Jan 22, 2025 | KENT 83 – 64 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2024 | KENT 67 – 59 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 16-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-5 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#64) | 0.2 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#62) | 0.33 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#71) | 0.36 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#42) | 0.521 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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