Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MVSU +14 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -14.6 (-28.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -9.8 (-23.8) | 153.4 (+2.6) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -11.8 (-25.8) | 152.4 (+3.6) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -10.6 (-24.6) | 153.6 (+2.4) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -10.3 (-24.3) | 155.9 (+0.1) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | ALST 92 – 55 MVSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALST 89 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 18, 2025 | ALST 79 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ALST 84 – 55 MVSU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | ALST 61 – 46 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 2-26 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-16 |
| Home | 6-6 | 0-11 |
| Away | 3-15 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 83.0 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#312) | -20.7 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#339) | -4.26 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.65 (#331) | -5.38 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#334) | 0.333 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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