Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -2.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -0.8 (-5.2) | 140.4 (+7.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -2.3 (-3.7) | 139.7 (+8.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -2.2 (-3.8) | 141.1 (+6.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -2.8 (-3.2) | 140.7 (+7.3) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | HOW 79 – 53 UMES |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMES 69 – 57 HOW |
| Feb 17, 2025 | HOW 86 – 62 UMES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | HOW 77 – 57 UMES |
| Mar 2, 2024 | HOW 70 – 66 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-16 | 16-13 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 9-5 |
| Home | 6-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.8 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#288) | -2.3 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#290) | -1.10 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#314) | -1.13 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#294) | 0.441 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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