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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
21–10 on winners
spread MAE 9.5
32 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Incarnate Word
@
Texas Tech
|
+24.0 | 131.8 | 91% | 51–79 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Rutgers
|
+6.6 | 142.4 | 78% | 76–81 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Clemson
|
+5.8 | 130.2 | 75% | 67–77 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
USC
|
+16.2 | 135.0 | 88% | 63–86 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Memphis
|
+6.6 | 140.2 | 78% | 57–58 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
LSU
|
+12.9 | 146.7 | 86% | 54–77 | ✓ |
Wofford
@
Mercer
|
+10.8 | 142.4 | 87% | 78–65 | ✗ |
Central Michigan
@
Eastern Michigan
|
+1.4 | 153.4 | 56% | 87–60 | ✗ |
SE Louisiana
@
Lamar
|
-2.2 | 135.7 | 37% | 64–74 | ✗ |
Omaha
@
Kansas State
|
+7.9 | 140.2 | 78% | 58–60 | ✓ |
Utah Tech
@
Gonzaga
|
+23.4 | 162.6 | 90% | 67–112 | ✓ |
Houston
@
Tulsa
|
-5.0 | 128.8 | 25% | 64–65 | ✗ |
Northwestern
@
Iowa
|
+8.4 | 159.8 | 75% | 72–87 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
Alabama
|
-0.3 | 136.8 | 46% | 64–82 | ✗ |
VCU
@
Saint Joseph's
|
-12.1 | 155.1 | 16% | 80–64 | ✓ |
Manhattan
@
Delaware State
|
+0.8 | 150.2 | 49% | 65–59 | ✗ |
George Washington
@
Fordham
|
— | — | — | 71–47 | — |
Furman
@
Chattanooga
|
-0.2 | 147.1 | 53% | 77–73 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Ohio
|
+9.0 | 158.1 | 81% | 83–75 | ✗ |
SMU
@
Temple
|
-4.1 | 137.5 | 31% | 79–71 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Hampton
|
-1.7 | 141.5 | 39% | 69–80 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Baylor
|
+25.6 | 159.6 | 91% | 76–105 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
Longwood
|
+0.5 | 144.0 | 50% | 80–73 | ✗ |
Campbell
@
Winthrop
|
+16.4 | 150.8 | 91% | 83–84 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Colorado State
|
+14.5 | 129.7 | 88% | 59–81 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Rhode Island
|
+0.8 | 143.3 | 53% | 57–63 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Providence
|
+8.3 | 144.3 | 81% | 55–71 | ✓ |
Radford
@
Presbyterian
|
-2.0 | 131.3 | 35% | 71–65 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Notre Dame
|
-6.5 | 139.1 | 26% | 66–57 | ✓ |
George Mason
@
Massachusetts
|
+10.6 | 151.4 | 86% | 93–92 | ✗ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
High Point
|
+9.3 | 151.4 | 83% | 52–63 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Ohio State
|
+11.2 | 142.0 | 84% | 54–90 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.