Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +7 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -1.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -0.5 (-7.5) | 144.0 (+9.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -0.2 (-7.2) | 140.1 (+12.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -0.7 (-7.7) | 145.3 (+7.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -0.4 (-7.4) | 144.8 (+8.2) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UNCA 85 – 82 LONG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCA 79 – 74 LONG |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNCA 72 – 61 LONG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCA 87 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | LONG 85 – 76 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-17 | 10-10 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-5 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#234) | -2.0 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#308) | -0.50 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.55 (#300) | -0.25 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#287) | 0.475 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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