Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MEM -500 USF +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +1 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -9.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-24.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -6.6 (-5.6) | 140.2 (-25.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -4.8 (-3.8) | 137.5 (-22.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -5.2 (-4.2) | 141.1 (-26.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -6.3 (-5.3) | 140.3 (-25.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USF 96 – 89 MEM |
| Feb 20, 2026 | USF 87 – 66 MEM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MEM 84 – 68 USF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MEM 80 – 65 USF |
| Jan 19, 2024 | USF 74 – 73 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 9-13 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 4-10 |
| Home | 10-1 | 4-6 |
| Away | 4-3 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#97) | -0.7 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#126) | 0.45 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#112) | 0.48 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#177) | 0.520 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 42.9 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.