Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | PROV -260 BTLR +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +16 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -9.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -8.3 (+7.7) | 144.3 (-18.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -6.6 (+9.4) | 137.3 (-11.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -8.1 (+7.9) | 143.7 (-17.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -7.8 (+8.2) | 144.2 (-18.2) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | PROV 91 – 81 BTLR |
| Feb 5, 2026 | PROV 97 – 87 BTLR |
| Dec 13, 2025 | BTLR 113 – 110 PROV |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BTLR 75 – 69 PROV |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BTLR 82 – 81 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#96) | -1.0 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#77) | -0.02 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#93) | 0.24 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#63) | 0.511 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 82.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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