Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +11 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -11.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (-42.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -9.3 (+1.7) | 151.4 (-36.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -8.7 (+2.3) | 147.8 (-32.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -10.1 (+0.9) | 150.1 (-35.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -9.2 (+1.8) | 150.2 (-35.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | HPU 95 – 70 UPST |
| Jan 18, 2026 | HPU 89 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 27, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | HPU 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UPST 86 – 81 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | 5-18 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#181) | -8.7 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#242) | -3.01 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#236) | -4.37 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#248) | 0.419 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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