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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
18–11 on winners
spread MAE 10.8
29 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+6.8 | 148.6 | 75% | 85–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.6 | 133.8 | 76% | 67–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.3 | 144.0 | 67% | 80–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.8 | 147.1 | 81% | 83–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.2 | 146.6 | 42% | 97–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 142.5 | 83% | 55–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 144.1 | 52% | 78–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 150.2 | 45% | 67–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.8 | 153.1 | 89% | 76–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 154.0 | 74% | 61–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 142.1 | 56% | 68–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.0 | 145.4 | 88% | 61–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 150.4 | 75% | 71–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 141.1 | 67% | 85–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 138.2 | 87% | 70–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 133.7 | 60% | 73–53 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.0 | 158.4 | 81% | 61–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 139.9 | 61% | 68–84 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.2 | 139.3 | 30% | 91–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 145.0 | 41% | 63–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.9 | 131.3 | 71% | 45–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 140.9 | 54% | 80–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.7 | 150.2 | 88% | 76–94 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 131.0 | 34% | 63–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.1 | 144.7 | 49% | 55–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.5 | 130.5 | 35% | 83–48 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 148.0 | 71% | 59–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.6 | 145.5 | 91% | 62–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.9 | 145.6 | 85% | 60–51 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.