Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.0 Under |
| Money | SMC -1600 SAC +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +18 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -5.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -7.9 (+10.1) | 131.3 (-23.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -5.4 (+12.6) | 126.4 (-18.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -9.0 (+9.0) | 129.9 (-21.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -8.7 (+9.3) | 130.5 (-22.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 8-12 |
| Conference | 4-6 | 5-9 |
| Home | 9-3 | 5-3 |
| Away | 2-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#82) | 4.6 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#60) | 0.75 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#78) | 1.09 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#74) | 0.417 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 81.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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