Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +9 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -12.7 (-21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-36.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -9.9 (-18.9) | 145.6 (-34.6) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -8.8 (-17.8) | 143.0 (-32.0) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -10.3 (-19.3) | 145.7 (-34.7) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -9.5 (-18.5) | 144.9 (-33.9) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | HPU 95 – 70 UPST |
| Jan 18, 2026 | HPU 89 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 27, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | HPU 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UPST 86 – 81 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | 5-18 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#174) | -9.4 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#226) | -3.07 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#225) | -4.30 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#242) | 0.404 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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