Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -440 BC +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +3 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -18.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -15.8 (-12.8) | 153.1 (+1.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -14.7 (-11.7) | 152.4 (+2.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -17.5 (-14.5) | 150.8 (+4.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -16.7 (-13.7) | 152.8 (+2.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | NCSU 79 – 71 BC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NCSU 70 – 62 BC |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NCSU 81 – 70 BC |
| Dec 2, 2023 | NCSU 84 – 78 BC |
| Feb 11, 2023 | NCSU 92 – 62 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 4-16 |
| Conference | 9-8 | 2-11 |
| Home | 7-4 | 3-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 0-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#19) | -0.8 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#53) | 0.13 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#56) | 0.73 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#102) | 0.498 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.1% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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