Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -400 DEP +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -8.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -9.0 (+12.0) | 158.4 (-15.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -8.8 (+12.2) | 151.9 (-8.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -12.1 (+8.9) | 152.9 (-9.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -10.1 (+10.9) | 154.1 (-11.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CONN 72 – 60 DEP |
| Dec 21, 2025 | CONN 72 – 54 DEP |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CONN 72 – 61 DEP |
| Jan 1, 2025 | CONN 81 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 15, 2024 | CONN 101 – 65 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-8 | 5-14 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 2-13 |
| Home | 7-3 | 2-8 |
| Away | 6-3 | 2-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#54) | 4.3 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#56) | -0.02 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#40) | 0.16 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#36) | 0.462 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 53.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 45.5% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 60.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 41.5% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 10.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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