Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | AF +550 USU -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +35 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -4.2 (-30.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -3.5 (-31.5) | 130.5 (+0.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -4.8 (-30.2) | 129.1 (+1.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -9.2 (-25.8) | 133.0 (-2.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -5.6 (-29.4) | 129.3 (+1.7) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | USU 99 – 62 AF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | USU 87 – 47 AF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | USU 87 – 58 AF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USU 72 – 60 AF |
| Jan 2, 2024 | USU 88 – 60 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-20 | 20-9 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 15-4 |
| Home | 3-8 | 10-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 62.3 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#260) | 1.7 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#155) | -0.27 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#204) | -0.74 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#138) | 0.472 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 26.2 | 43.1 |
| OREB / G | 4.0 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 14.0% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 80.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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