Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | VAN +270 FLA -330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +19 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -8.6 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -4.2 (-14.8) | 139.3 (+23.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -4.3 (-14.7) | 140.1 (+22.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -5.1 (-13.9) | 142.3 (+20.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -5.3 (-13.7) | 141.3 (+21.7) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | VAN 91 – 74 FLA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | FLA 98 – 94 VAN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | FLA 86 – 75 VAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VAN 79 – 78 FLA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FLA 77 – 64 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 9-7 |
| Home | 6-7 | 6-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#160) | 12.6 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#180) | 1.85 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#186) | 2.79 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#232) | 0.629 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 25.3% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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