Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
| Money | AUB +150 ARK -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +12 | 182 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -7.8 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+34.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -3.2 (-8.8) | 146.6 (+35.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -3.9 (-8.1) | 154.4 (+27.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -4.4 (-7.6) | 152.4 (+29.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -2.8 (-9.2) | 147.9 (+34.1) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | ARK 88 – 75 AUB |
| Jan 10, 2026 | AUB 95 – 73 ARK |
| Feb 20, 2025 | AUB 67 – 60 ARK |
| Jan 6, 2024 | AUB 83 – 51 ARK |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ARK 76 – 73 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 25-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-4 |
| Home | 8-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#84) | 17.7 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#39) | 2.33 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#41) | 3.47 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#50) | 0.525 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 46.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 41.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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