Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | GT +150 UNC -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -3.8 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -2.0 (+7.0) | 150.2 (-11.2) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -1.4 (+6.4) | 148.3 (-9.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -2.5 (+7.5) | 151.3 (-12.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -1.3 (+6.3) | 149.5 (-10.5) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UNC 91 – 75 GT |
| Dec 7, 2024 | UNC 68 – 65 GT |
| Jan 31, 2024 | GT 74 – 73 UNC |
| Dec 10, 2022 | UNC 75 – 59 GT |
| Jan 16, 2022 | UNC 88 – 65 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-9 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 10-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#122) | 10.6 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#157) | 1.47 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#144) | 2.64 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#215) | 0.561 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 25.6% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 45.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 16.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 41.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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