Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -155 VMI +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +13 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -6.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -5.4 (+7.6) | 150.4 (+4.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -3.9 (+9.1) | 146.1 (+8.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -5.8 (+7.2) | 151.0 (+4.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -5.6 (+7.4) | 151.7 (+3.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | SAM 80 – 61 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SAM 78 – 58 VMI |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SAM 95 – 83 VMI |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SAM 81 – 68 VMI |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SAM 102 – 63 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-13 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 2-9 | 7-7 |
| Home | 4-5 | 11-1 |
| Away | 2-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#124) | -0.2 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#98) | -1.43 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#95) | -2.44 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#61) | 0.431 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.8% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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