Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -160 WCU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +8 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -2.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -1.0 (+7.0) | 144.1 (+19.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -1.2 (+6.8) | 143.9 (+20.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WCU -0.1 (+8.1) | 145.0 (+19.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -0.6 (+7.4) | 142.7 (+21.3) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ETSU 69 – 67 WCU |
| Jan 30, 2026 | WCU 90 – 88 ETSU |
| Jan 14, 2026 | WCU 72 – 68 ETSU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | WCU 76 – 67 ETSU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | ETSU 85 – 58 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-12 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 4-13 |
| Home | 8-4 | 6-5 |
| Away | 3-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#196) | -0.3 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#250) | 1.37 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#210) | 2.14 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#252) | 0.534 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 24.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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