Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +10 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -0.2 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-27.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -0.1 (+9.9) | 144.7 (-24.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -0.1 (+10.1) | 141.1 (-21.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -0.4 (+9.6) | 146.0 (-26.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -0.2 (+9.8) | 145.4 (-25.4) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UNCA 85 – 82 LONG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCA 79 – 74 LONG |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNCA 72 – 61 LONG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCA 87 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | LONG 85 – 76 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-17 | 10-10 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-5 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#243) | -0.9 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.62 (#313) | -0.31 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.57 (#303) | -0.19 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#288) | 0.479 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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