Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -550 FRES +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +22 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -16.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -14.5 (+7.5) | 129.7 (+10.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -19.2 (+2.8) | 130.4 (+9.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -19.1 (+2.9) | 131.8 (+8.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CSU 67 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2026 | CSU 74 – 70 FRES |
| Jan 14, 2026 | FRES 79 – 69 CSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | CSU 69 – 64 FRES |
| Jan 8, 2025 | CSU 91 – 64 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 12-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-1 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#68) | -5.2 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#74) | -0.61 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#98) | -1.20 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.651 (#15) | 0.495 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 17.4% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 32.3% |
| ORB% | 17.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 60.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.5% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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