Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MER -145 WOF +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WOF +13 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -13.2 (-26.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -10.8 (-23.8) | 142.4 (+0.6) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -9.3 (-22.3) | 136.3 (+6.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -10.0 (-23.0) | 140.3 (+2.7) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -10.9 (-23.9) | 142.3 (+0.7) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | WOF 80 – 77 MER |
| Jan 10, 2026 | MER 109 – 97 WOF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | WOF 77 – 66 MER |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WOF 69 – 49 MER |
| Feb 15, 2024 | WOF 73 – 60 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 15-9 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 12-5 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#60) | -0.6 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#17) | -0.60 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.45 (#16) | -0.71 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#28) | 0.518 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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