Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | TEM +290 SMU -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +8 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -7.8 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -4.1 (-3.9) | 137.5 (+12.5) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -8.0 (-0.0) | 140.4 (+9.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -6.5 (-1.5) | 141.8 (+8.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -5.4 (-2.6) | 136.6 (+13.4) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2024 | TEM 75 – 60 SMU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | SMU 77 – 64 TEM |
| Feb 9, 2023 | SMU 72 – 71 TEM |
| Feb 17, 2022 | TEM 64 – 57 SMU |
| Jan 29, 2022 | SMU 69 – 61 TEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEM | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-11 | 11-6 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 7-4 |
| Home | 3-5 | 6-2 |
| Away | 2-5 | 5-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#145) | 13.0 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#86) | 3.90 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#88) | 5.70 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#23) | 0.654 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEM | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.0% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.5% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 25.5% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 41.0% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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