Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | ND +240 UVA -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +9 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -9.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -6.5 (-2.5) | 139.1 (-16.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -7.9 (-1.1) | 134.9 (-11.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -8.2 (-0.8) | 135.4 (-12.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -7.0 (-2.0) | 139.1 (-16.1) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | UVA 100 – 97 ND |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ND 74 – 59 UVA |
| Feb 1, 2024 | UVA 65 – 53 ND |
| Dec 30, 2023 | ND 76 – 54 UVA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | UVA 57 – 55 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-15 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-4 |
| Home | 6-5 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 58.2 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#187) | 11.8 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#213) | 0.54 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#193) | 1.58 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#222) | 0.567 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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