Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -145 MISS +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +18 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -2.3 (+20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -0.3 (+18.3) | 136.8 (+9.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -0.0 (+18.0) | 136.9 (+9.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -0.3 (+18.3) | 140.0 (+6.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -0.4 (+18.4) | 137.5 (+8.5) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | MISS 80 – 79 ALA |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ALA 93 – 74 MISS |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MISS 74 – 64 ALA |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ALA 103 – 88 MISS |
| Jan 4, 2023 | ALA 84 – 62 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-7 | 16-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#73) | 13.5 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#94) | 1.72 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#86) | 2.91 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#80) | 0.561 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 41.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 29.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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