Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | DSU +250 MAN -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +6 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | MAN -1.8 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-30.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DSU -0.8 (-6.8) | 150.2 (-26.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DSU -1.1 (-7.1) | 139.7 (-15.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DSU -0.7 (-6.7) | 142.6 (-18.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DSU -1.8 (-7.8) | 145.7 (-21.7) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DSU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Massey | -20.8 (#330) | -14.9 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#286) | -2.85 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.13 (#293) | -4.51 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#290) | 0.303 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DSU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.8% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.1% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 25.4% |
| DRB% | 60.2% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.3% | 35.1% |
Game Analysis
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