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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–3 on winners
spread MAE 11.8
11 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maryland
@
Wisconsin
|
+6.7 | 139.7 | 77% | 70–64 | ✗ |
Illinois State
@
Loyola Chicago
|
+14.7 | 149.2 | 88% | 55–86 | ✓ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
UC Irvine
|
+2.2 | 136.4 | 59% | 69–73 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Minnesota
|
+8.3 | 162.1 | 81% | 56–81 | ✓ |
Missouri State
@
Northern Iowa
|
-8.0 | 147.2 | 24% | 75–85 | ✗ |
Fresno State
@
Colorado State
|
— | — | — | 53–75 | — |
Northern Arizona
@
Gonzaga
|
+24.8 | 157.0 | 91% | 58–88 | ✓ |
Colorado
@
Arizona
|
-0.1 | 141.0 | 49% | 74–88 | ✗ |
Northeastern
@
West Virginia
|
+12.6 | 135.1 | 86% | 51–73 | ✓ |
Central Arkansas
@
Baylor
|
+25.0 | 158.8 | 91% | 56–93 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Virginia Tech
|
+13.4 | 135.7 | 88% | 78–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.