Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MINN +155 MSU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +25 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MINN -9.3 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.5 (-31.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MINN -8.3 (+16.7) | 162.1 (-25.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MINN -5.8 (+19.2) | 156.4 (-19.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MINN -7.9 (+17.1) | 163.4 (-26.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MINN -7.5 (+17.5) | 161.7 (-24.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | MINN 76 – 73 MSU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | MSU 73 – 51 MINN |
| Dec 5, 2024 | MSU 90 – 72 MINN |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MSU 77 – 67 MINN |
| Feb 7, 2024 | MINN 59 – 56 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-15 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 0-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#57) | 3.5 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#17) | 1.22 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.34 (#17) | 2.30 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#46) | 0.519 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 38.0% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 78.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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